Militaries around the globe are in the midst of a major shift, with countries as diverse as New Zealand and Sweden preparing to bolster and modernize their military capabilities. One particularly significant military expansion is occurring in Japan.
In late 2022, Japan changed its national security strategy to allow for an increase in defense spending, with the goal of hitting the two percent of GDP mark over the next five years. It comes after decades of military spending being capped at one percent. This represents the largest shift in Japanese defense policy since 2014, when the governing cabinet reinterpreted the constitution after the country’s defeat in World War Two which committed Japan to maintain only a minimally budgeted Self-Defense Force (SDF). That 2014 change allowed the SDF to aid an allied nation (such as Taiwan) militarily in cases where the country comes under attack.
The added funds will largely go towards purchase of hardware, such as U.S. Tomahawk cruise missiles. This represents a shift toward a forward military posture, as the missiles can strike North Korea and some regions of China. At the same time, funds will be assigned to internal projects, including those that involve the production of armed drones, new fighter jets, and hypersonic missiles able to exceed the sound barrier by a factor of five.
Japan has added enemy base strike capabilities to its mission because it sees a deteriorating security environment across Northeast Asia, and in the larger Indo-Pacific region. In particular, China has a robust and expanding competitive presence. Its military budget has outstripped Japan’s for nearly two decades. In March 2023, Beijing announced a plan to spend almost $225 billion on defense this year, or approximately 4.5 times as much as Japan.
Relations have also worsened in the Sea of Japan, or the East China Sea, where aggressive Chinese military and coast guard actions have become ever more frequent. A particular flash point came in August 2022, when U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. China, in response, undertook military drills in the Taiwan Strait. At the same time, North Korea has increased its test missile launches in Japan's direction, and is continuing to work toward developing nuclear weapons.
Among the 66 ballistic missiles launched in 2022 was an intermediate-range Hwasong-12 that triggered Japan’s missile warning system (J-ALERT) for the first time since 2017. Only two months later, North Korea repeated a similar launch that set off the J-ALERT warning system again. Finally, the continued intensification of the war in Ukraine has caused many countries, Japan being no exception, to consider what would happen if a larger neighbor invaded them.
Public polls have shown that most Japanese support this policy shift, believing strike capabilities have become necessary. At the same time, Japan has shifted its stance and opened the door to partnering with the United States to protect Taiwan should it come under attack from China. With several Japanese military bases potential targets in a war scenario, there is a perceived vulnerability should Japan not strengthen defensive and counteroffensive strike capabilities.
While the Japanese government has not demonstrated how its new stance corresponds with its constitution, public debate has been muted. Some argue that possessing offensive weapons simply as a deterrent, without using them offensively, is within a strict constitutional interpretation.
